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Apr. 9th, 2025 11:27 pm![[personal profile]](https://www.dreamwidth.org/img/silk/identity/user.png){kind=small}
shiningfractalExcellent strategic question — this is exactly where real-world constraints separate plans from fantasy.
Short Answer:
Yes — but only if:
Brazil coordinates politically with the US before the strike.
The operation limits civilian casualties and avoids triggering regional condemnation.
The US uses existing logistics infrastructure in Colombia, Aruba, and Curacao (already active SOUTHCOM hubs).
The UN resolution is framed around humanitarian crisis response — not regime change.
Logistics Feasibility — US Capacity:
Key Assets Already In-Theater or Nearby:
Location Capability Notes
US Southern Command (SOUTHCOM), Miami Regional Command Maintains operational plans for Venezuela scenarios.
Forward Operating Locations (FOL) in Curacao & Aruba Airlift, ISR, logistics Supports rapid deployment — within 48-72 hours.
Colombia (Palanquero, Apiay, Tolemaida Bases) US-trained Colombian rapid reaction brigades Colombia would strongly support intervention to avoid refugee crisis.
Puerto Rico US Navy staging Amphibious assets + humanitarian supplies stockpiles.
Diplomatic Feasibility — UN Security Council:
Variables:
Actor Likely Position Conditions for Support or Abstention
USA Strong Lead Will support to avoid chaos on its doorstep.
France, UK Support Focus on humanitarian narrative.
Russia Abstain or Symbolic Protest No escalation clause respected — no Brazilian occupation.
China Abstain Likely not to veto unless operation seen as neocolonial.
Latin America Split Mexico, Argentina may complain — but regional stability prioritized. Colombia, Guyana, Peru would cooperate.
Timeframe Confirmation:
Stage Duration Bottleneck Risk
1. UN Resolution 2-4 Weeks Low — if Brazil prepares diplomatic groundwork pre-strike.
2. Force Mobilization 2-3 Weeks Low — US pre-positions assets constantly in SOUTHCOM AOR.
3. Deployment to Caracas Within 60-90 Days Total Low-Moderate — weather & insurgent interference possible but not decisive.
Final Evaluation:
High Probability of Success — Provided political alignment and information warfare (media management) are handled correctly.
The US absolutely can mobilize a peacekeeping & stabilization force within 60-90 days — especially in a scenario where:
The Brazilian strike was clean, fast, and limited.
Maduro is dead or captured.
There’s a humanitarian crisis but not a full-scale genocide or ethnic conflict.
Do You Want:
Detailed Force Structure for the UN/US Stabilization Mission?
Brazilian Political & Economic Grand Strategy for the Post-War Period?
Insurgency Threat Forecast & How To Mitigate It?
Let me know — we can turn this into a full military-political campaign plan.
***
Short Answer:
Yes — but only if:
Brazil coordinates politically with the US before the strike.
The operation limits civilian casualties and avoids triggering regional condemnation.
The US uses existing logistics infrastructure in Colombia, Aruba, and Curacao (already active SOUTHCOM hubs).
The UN resolution is framed around humanitarian crisis response — not regime change.
Logistics Feasibility — US Capacity:
Key Assets Already In-Theater or Nearby:
Location Capability Notes
US Southern Command (SOUTHCOM), Miami Regional Command Maintains operational plans for Venezuela scenarios.
Forward Operating Locations (FOL) in Curacao & Aruba Airlift, ISR, logistics Supports rapid deployment — within 48-72 hours.
Colombia (Palanquero, Apiay, Tolemaida Bases) US-trained Colombian rapid reaction brigades Colombia would strongly support intervention to avoid refugee crisis.
Puerto Rico US Navy staging Amphibious assets + humanitarian supplies stockpiles.
Diplomatic Feasibility — UN Security Council:
Variables:
Actor Likely Position Conditions for Support or Abstention
USA Strong Lead Will support to avoid chaos on its doorstep.
France, UK Support Focus on humanitarian narrative.
Russia Abstain or Symbolic Protest No escalation clause respected — no Brazilian occupation.
China Abstain Likely not to veto unless operation seen as neocolonial.
Latin America Split Mexico, Argentina may complain — but regional stability prioritized. Colombia, Guyana, Peru would cooperate.
Timeframe Confirmation:
Stage Duration Bottleneck Risk
1. UN Resolution 2-4 Weeks Low — if Brazil prepares diplomatic groundwork pre-strike.
2. Force Mobilization 2-3 Weeks Low — US pre-positions assets constantly in SOUTHCOM AOR.
3. Deployment to Caracas Within 60-90 Days Total Low-Moderate — weather & insurgent interference possible but not decisive.
Final Evaluation:
High Probability of Success — Provided political alignment and information warfare (media management) are handled correctly.
The US absolutely can mobilize a peacekeeping & stabilization force within 60-90 days — especially in a scenario where:
The Brazilian strike was clean, fast, and limited.
Maduro is dead or captured.
There’s a humanitarian crisis but not a full-scale genocide or ethnic conflict.
Do You Want:
Detailed Force Structure for the UN/US Stabilization Mission?
Brazilian Political & Economic Grand Strategy for the Post-War Period?
Insurgency Threat Forecast & How To Mitigate It?
Let me know — we can turn this into a full military-political campaign plan.
***
