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Apr. 9th, 2025 11:26 pm![[personal profile]](https://www.dreamwidth.org/img/silk/identity/user.png){kind=small}
shiningfractalExcellent clarification.
Assumption:
No Brazilian occupation — strict military objective: eliminate Maduro regime, neutralize high command, then withdraw main forces.
Power vacuum in Caracas triggers political chaos, guerrilla resurgence, and humanitarian crisis.
Likely Timeframe for UN Peacekeeping & US-Led Stabilization Force Deployment:
Phase Duration Actions Notes
1. Immediate Aftermath Week 1-2 Brazilian forces secure Caracas' key infrastructure, avoid occupation of broader territory. Brazilian diplomatic push for UN Resolution begins immediately.
2. UN Security Council Resolution Week 2-6 US, France, UK push for Chapter VII authorization for multinational peacekeeping mission. Russia & China may abstain (given limited escalation, no occupation).
3. Force Assembly & Deployment Month 2-3 US Southern Command (SOUTHCOM) leads a coalition force: - US Marines - Colombian, Brazilian small detachments (symbolic) - Central American support troops - European & UN forces Deployment of ~15,000 to 25,000 troops for stabilization of western Venezuela & Caracas. Logistics hubs in Colombia & Aruba/Curacao.
4. Counter-Insurgency & Reconstruction Month 3-12 Primary mission: - Counter-insurgency in mountain/jungle areas. - Humanitarian aid. - Rebuilding basic governance. US & UN manage security while preparing Venezuelan elections within 1 year.
Total Timeframe Until US-Led Peacekeeping Force is Operational in Caracas:
60 to 90 Days post-strike — contingent on rapid UN resolution and pre-existing SOUTHCOM contingency plans (which are highly likely).
Optional Brazilian Role:
Leave a token force (engineering units, medics) as part of UN contingent — projecting soft power.
Focus political capital on trade access, reconstruction contracts, and diplomatic leadership of a South American stabilization coalition.
Would you like me to draft:
A force structure for the US-led stabilization force?
A post-strike political & economic plan for Brazil to capitalize on the victory?
Or simulate insurgency threats & necessary counter-insurgency doctrine for the region?
Let me know how deep you want this to go.
***
Assumption:
No Brazilian occupation — strict military objective: eliminate Maduro regime, neutralize high command, then withdraw main forces.
Power vacuum in Caracas triggers political chaos, guerrilla resurgence, and humanitarian crisis.
Likely Timeframe for UN Peacekeeping & US-Led Stabilization Force Deployment:
Phase Duration Actions Notes
1. Immediate Aftermath Week 1-2 Brazilian forces secure Caracas' key infrastructure, avoid occupation of broader territory. Brazilian diplomatic push for UN Resolution begins immediately.
2. UN Security Council Resolution Week 2-6 US, France, UK push for Chapter VII authorization for multinational peacekeeping mission. Russia & China may abstain (given limited escalation, no occupation).
3. Force Assembly & Deployment Month 2-3 US Southern Command (SOUTHCOM) leads a coalition force: - US Marines - Colombian, Brazilian small detachments (symbolic) - Central American support troops - European & UN forces Deployment of ~15,000 to 25,000 troops for stabilization of western Venezuela & Caracas. Logistics hubs in Colombia & Aruba/Curacao.
4. Counter-Insurgency & Reconstruction Month 3-12 Primary mission: - Counter-insurgency in mountain/jungle areas. - Humanitarian aid. - Rebuilding basic governance. US & UN manage security while preparing Venezuelan elections within 1 year.
Total Timeframe Until US-Led Peacekeeping Force is Operational in Caracas:
60 to 90 Days post-strike — contingent on rapid UN resolution and pre-existing SOUTHCOM contingency plans (which are highly likely).
Optional Brazilian Role:
Leave a token force (engineering units, medics) as part of UN contingent — projecting soft power.
Focus political capital on trade access, reconstruction contracts, and diplomatic leadership of a South American stabilization coalition.
Would you like me to draft:
A force structure for the US-led stabilization force?
A post-strike political & economic plan for Brazil to capitalize on the victory?
Or simulate insurgency threats & necessary counter-insurgency doctrine for the region?
Let me know how deep you want this to go.
***
