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shiningfractalSimulation: Operação Lança do Sul — War Scenario
Brazilian Decapitation Strike on Caracas — Contested Environment with Russian-Supplied Venezuelan Defenses
Assumptions:
Venezuelan Defensive Improvements (Year of Preparation):
Maduro acquires from Russia:
S-300VM (long-range SAMs) — around Caracas & oil fields.
Pantsir-S1 (short-range SAMs) — airbase & key site defense.
Tor-M2 systems (mobile air defense).
Upgraded Sukhoi Su-30MK2 fighter squadrons.
Anti-tank guided missiles & MANPADS for infantry.
Brazilian Preparations:
10 billion R$ invested in mobility, air dominance, special forces, EW, cyber.
Intelligence operatives infiltrated months in advance.
Civilian-friendly propaganda operations ready.
Target: 10 days maximum operation — no occupation.
Phase 1 — Pre-Invasion Cyber & EW Attack (Day -1 to 0)
Brazilian Cyber Command Actions:
Sabotage Venezuelan military comms.
Disrupt air defense radar coordination.
Take down power grid in parts of Caracas & military installations.
Venezuelan Response:
Limited redundancy in infrastructure.
Russian advisors help maintain military comms on isolated systems.
Phase 2 — Initial Air War (Day 0 to 2)
Brazilian Actions:
FAB Gripen E squadrons (based in Boa Vista, Manaus) engage in SEAD (Suppression of Enemy Air Defenses).
C-390 transports launch drones to probe and saturate S-300 defenses.
Kamikaze drones target Pantsir and Tor batteries.
Outcome:
FAB achieves localized air superiority north of El Tigre — but cannot fully neutralize S-300 bubble around Caracas.
Losses: 2-4 Gripens, multiple drones.
Phase 3 — Ground Invasion Thrust (Day 1 to 4)
Ground Forces Movement:
Mechanized Cavalry Brigades (12,000 troops) rapidly advance through Route 10.
Special Forces sabotage bridges and fuel depots to slow down Venezuelan reinforcements from the west.
Venezuelan Resistance:
Hit-and-run ATGM ambushes slow the advance.
Guerrilla activity in urban zones south of Caracas.
Russian advisors coordinate effective defense in mountainous regions.
Phase 4 — Decapitation Strike (Day 4 to 7)
Brazilian Special Operations:
Airborne insertion of elite SOF near La Carlota Air Base under cover of drone swarm.
Simultaneous amphibious Marine assault on La Guaira Port.
Critical Objective:
Targeting Maduro's known command centers: Miraflores Palace, Fuerte Tiuna Military Complex.
Likely Outcome:
Maduro flees or hides in fortified underground sites.
Brazilian SOF secures key government facilities but faces stiff resistance in urban environment.
Phase 5 — Stabilization / Withdrawal (Day 7 to 10)
Options:
Declare victory after symbolic capture of Caracas.
Install friendly transitional council.
Rapid withdrawal under air cover before Russian-backed militias regroup.
Estimated Losses (Brazil):
Asset Loss Estimate
Gripen Fighters 4-8 aircraft
Transport Aircraft 1-2 losses
Mechanized Vehicles 50-100 units
Troops 500-1,000 casualties (mainly SOF and Cavalry)
Venezuelan Losses:
Heavy military infrastructure damage.
Loss of command & control.
Leadership scattered or captured.
Population likely shocked but divided politically.
Strategic Analysis:
Strengths Weaknesses Risks
Rapid mobility, SOF dominance, cyber capabilities Limited air force size, logistical strain in jungle, lack of total air superiority Russian escalation (troops, mercenaries), insurgency, global condemnation
Would you like me to simulate:
Escalation Scenarios?
Post-war Venezuelan stability?
Political consequences for Brazil?
Occupation cost scenarios?
Counter-insurgency phase?
***
Brazilian Decapitation Strike on Caracas — Contested Environment with Russian-Supplied Venezuelan Defenses
Assumptions:
Venezuelan Defensive Improvements (Year of Preparation):
Maduro acquires from Russia:
S-300VM (long-range SAMs) — around Caracas & oil fields.
Pantsir-S1 (short-range SAMs) — airbase & key site defense.
Tor-M2 systems (mobile air defense).
Upgraded Sukhoi Su-30MK2 fighter squadrons.
Anti-tank guided missiles & MANPADS for infantry.
Brazilian Preparations:
10 billion R$ invested in mobility, air dominance, special forces, EW, cyber.
Intelligence operatives infiltrated months in advance.
Civilian-friendly propaganda operations ready.
Target: 10 days maximum operation — no occupation.
Phase 1 — Pre-Invasion Cyber & EW Attack (Day -1 to 0)
Brazilian Cyber Command Actions:
Sabotage Venezuelan military comms.
Disrupt air defense radar coordination.
Take down power grid in parts of Caracas & military installations.
Venezuelan Response:
Limited redundancy in infrastructure.
Russian advisors help maintain military comms on isolated systems.
Phase 2 — Initial Air War (Day 0 to 2)
Brazilian Actions:
FAB Gripen E squadrons (based in Boa Vista, Manaus) engage in SEAD (Suppression of Enemy Air Defenses).
C-390 transports launch drones to probe and saturate S-300 defenses.
Kamikaze drones target Pantsir and Tor batteries.
Outcome:
FAB achieves localized air superiority north of El Tigre — but cannot fully neutralize S-300 bubble around Caracas.
Losses: 2-4 Gripens, multiple drones.
Phase 3 — Ground Invasion Thrust (Day 1 to 4)
Ground Forces Movement:
Mechanized Cavalry Brigades (12,000 troops) rapidly advance through Route 10.
Special Forces sabotage bridges and fuel depots to slow down Venezuelan reinforcements from the west.
Venezuelan Resistance:
Hit-and-run ATGM ambushes slow the advance.
Guerrilla activity in urban zones south of Caracas.
Russian advisors coordinate effective defense in mountainous regions.
Phase 4 — Decapitation Strike (Day 4 to 7)
Brazilian Special Operations:
Airborne insertion of elite SOF near La Carlota Air Base under cover of drone swarm.
Simultaneous amphibious Marine assault on La Guaira Port.
Critical Objective:
Targeting Maduro's known command centers: Miraflores Palace, Fuerte Tiuna Military Complex.
Likely Outcome:
Maduro flees or hides in fortified underground sites.
Brazilian SOF secures key government facilities but faces stiff resistance in urban environment.
Phase 5 — Stabilization / Withdrawal (Day 7 to 10)
Options:
Declare victory after symbolic capture of Caracas.
Install friendly transitional council.
Rapid withdrawal under air cover before Russian-backed militias regroup.
Estimated Losses (Brazil):
Asset Loss Estimate
Gripen Fighters 4-8 aircraft
Transport Aircraft 1-2 losses
Mechanized Vehicles 50-100 units
Troops 500-1,000 casualties (mainly SOF and Cavalry)
Venezuelan Losses:
Heavy military infrastructure damage.
Loss of command & control.
Leadership scattered or captured.
Population likely shocked but divided politically.
Strategic Analysis:
Strengths Weaknesses Risks
Rapid mobility, SOF dominance, cyber capabilities Limited air force size, logistical strain in jungle, lack of total air superiority Russian escalation (troops, mercenaries), insurgency, global condemnation
Would you like me to simulate:
Escalation Scenarios?
Post-war Venezuelan stability?
Political consequences for Brazil?
Occupation cost scenarios?
Counter-insurgency phase?
***
